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the joke is in your hand
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all I know is these facts since trumps policies took hold.

1. I pay more income taxes
2. I also had to pay an extra $326 to city taxes
3. gas has went up a dollar
4. my red state has increased gas tax 20 cents on top of the higher gas prices
5. my motorcycle tags went up $10 (red state here)

there is a common denominator. higher taxes. under republican control. imagine that.... exactly what we talked about a few years ago guys. they'll raise taxes on everything else and give you $2 a week extra on your paycheck but suck out an extra $60 a month in other taxes. smoke and mirrors.

I was driving to work on $22 a week. now it's up to $43. double what it was.

where's all these amazing tax breaks and pay raises we were promised?

I don't know if you guys heard about this now they are trying to pass a law to get rid of filing taxes. which sounds great on the surface. until they over estimate your taxes and don't refund you.
 

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Discussion Starter #22
Except that the economy is doing well currently. If Trump would talk about that, it would help him. But, he's hopeless. Stick an irrelevant burr under his saddle and he's off on a tangent that could prove to be self-destructive. He's making a big deal about his taxes now. Why? He's a loser who isn't as rich as he says, he's ducked taxes in all kinds of ways not available to anybody who wasn't born with a silver spoon, and he's got Russian entanglements coming out of every body cavity. That's not so much speculation as it is putting together the evidence that's leaked out over the years. He's a crappy mob boss, even though he would like to be a mob boss. Those of us who lived in NYC in the 1980s are completely unimpressed with Trump. He's not very bright, never has been, but has been lucky enough to get bailed out on a repeated basis. Now, if the economy keeps up, he might get reelected in spite of himself, but of course he would take that as a brilliant accomplishment that only he could manage. Never mind that there have been dozens of two term presidents.

I'm beginning to wonder if 2020 is going to revert to the every twenty year curse. Reagan almost died in office (elected 1980). Bush II didn't appear to have any brushes with mortality while in office. Now, it's looking like the 2020 cycle could be Trump vs. Biden. Two guys in their mid to late 70s. Trump thinks he's healthy, but I seriously doubt that he is. Biden might be, but who knows. Random things go wrong when you are pushing 80. Neither one of them is RBG, who is right there with Dick Cheney and Keith Richard for improbable indestructibility. Except that RBG seems to have gotten there through willpower instead of medical procedures and dumb luck. It's something to think about.
 

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Yeah, that trump tax cut. For the first time is over 40 year I paid the state money & my Fed refund was down over 30%. When I talked to the folks that do our payroll, she said everyone did. Nothing changed between the past 2 years, except the guidance they got from the Trump IRS. SMH
 

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Discussion Starter #24
The way the tax "cut" was structured, it will evaporate for all but the wealthiest Americans over time. Inherit a bucketload of money, like Lil' Lord Trump-leroy did, or pay more.
 

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Discussion Starter #25
The economy is a confusing read right now. Growth is below 2% for Q2, but employment is good. Wages aren't up much, but they are up a little. Real estate seems to be falling off in a variety of places. Manufacturing is up or down, depending on where you look. Farmers are screwed if they grew soy. Apple farmers get less attention, but they are also getting screwed. Interest rates inverted again, which is generally a very bad sign. It's all choppy. It could keep plowing along. Trump is pushing for rate cuts, even though rates aren't very high to begin with. Wall Street likes that idea. It doesn't seem sold on tariffs so much. Meaning that the market is unreadable. It was down, then up, I don't know what it's doing today and don't really care what it does from one day to the next.

The joker in the deck is the joker in the White House. It's pretty clear he's not interested in reality, he's interested in hearing what he wants to hear, hence his attempted choices for fed openings. It is good that he's resisting Bolton's urge to start wars everywhere, so I'll give him credit for that. An invasion of Iran for what would be entirely Trump administration caused behavior would not end well in any way. We had enough trouble with Iraq. Iran is b***** and more diverse. Iranians would not welcome US invaders any better than Iraqis did. The US wouldn't be able to gin up support because Trump has pissed off just about everyone, and nobody would have any interest in bailing his sorry butt out. Bush got the benefit of the doubt, and as time has gone on, the invasion of Iraq has looked like a worse idea all the time. The chances of selling an invasion of Iran go down all the time, because nobody will go along with bullshit again. So, that's a big loser, almost as big a loser as Trump's businesses over the years. It would take down the US and world economy decisively. If Trump reins in Bolton, he's got more of a chance of seeing the economy stay OK than if he lets Bolton's mindless bellicosity run amok.

The wheels will come off the economy eventually. It's tough to pinpoint an obvious bubble that's going to take it down. Student loan not a bubble so much as a massive drag on future growth. Corporate debt that's been used to pay shareholders rather than investing in opportunities might take down this company or that company. It's harder to see that taking down the economy than causing a drag on growth over time.

The thing is for politics, if the economy is not apparently improving, it's bad for the incumbent's chances of reelection or the incumbent party's chances of maintaining control. If the economy stays below 2% growth, or bounces up and down and then slows before the 2020 election, it's hard to imagine Trump will get reelected. There are enough people who just flat don't like him that it won't take much to push him over the edge. Unless Hillary runs again. Then Trump will probably stay in office and get away with being the jackass that he is.
 

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This guy is an unmitigated disaster of a president. I got creamed on taxes this year, too. First time since retiring 15 years ago.

Now China and an all-out trade war with them—and everyone in Europe wondering what's the next new "thing" to come from Trumpworld. Abe, another friggin' nationalist, is Trump's asshole buddy now, for taking him to a Sumo match. Seems most of the world is reverting to some form of authoritarianism, these days.

As for the economy I can only say that I got caught with my pants down. My portfolio is taking gas. Down more than $25K in value just this last week.

I'm getting tired of all this shat.

BTW...Has this site slowed down or is it just me? TX's take forever, all of a sudden.
 

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Discussion Starter #27
The employment report wasn't so hot this morning, but there is continuing expansion in manufacturing. Manufacturing is at a fairly low level and doesn't employ as many people as other sectors. That doesn't keep it from being a talking point. Tariff confusion is ugly and getting uglier. The car manufacturers are going to get creamed if Drumpf taxes trade with Mexico. Same with agriculture. The agricultural midwest and industrial swing states will get hammered by that one. Once again Drumpf kicks his supporters in the nuts and they seem to just take it. I don't get it at all. Mexico tariffs could turn Texas into a blue state if the GOP doesn't put the kibosh on it. GOPers other than Drumpf seem to understand this. Maybe they will start to see that the emperor has no clothes finally. It is still a year and a half until the election - plenty of time for all kinds of multiple times per week craziness.

The election will still hinge on economic performance over the months leading up to November 2020. That's my opinion, based upon history. Drumpf will be reelected or turfed depending upon whether the economic situation for voters in swing areas of swing states seems like it is improving or deteriorating. That's rate of change changes, so it's not strictly growth or contraction. I recently read an analysis of voter behavior in 2018, and it appears that swing voters who went for Drumpf in 2016 went against him in 2018. That's probably meaningless for 2020, but it shows that Drumpf's support isn't iron clad and that he should watch his step a bit more than he seems capable of.
 

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the joke is in your hand
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there's proof the 1% control the economy and if you and I have a job by years end. even with all the red lights flashing about a recession looming, tariffs killing companies and raising taxes, stocks go up. it's obvious who the 1% is trying to protect so they can continue to get more of it for themselves and desperate attempt to control the people. there's a resistance coming with a demand for doubling wages in this country. and they're desperate to try to make us believe in their trickle down economics lie so people will not push so hard to get it if they think the economy is booming. this country is owned and ran by plutocrats and we are all their slaves. money is their only power.
this is why we need people like sanders for a president. I have a feeling though, they will not allow it. they control who gets nominated and who wins. we do not have a true democracy in the USA. learn about the voting system and you will want to kill some motherfuckers.
 

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Discussion Starter #29
I'm not a fan of killing people, even if they have it coming by most standards. We have phony royals in the White House for the time being. I would like to see Kamala Harris beat Trump, just for orneriness. He would lose his mind if he lost to a non-white female who isn't very tall. Especially if it was a blowout that saw Texas and some other reliably GOP states flip. That would be worth a lot to see happen. I will not be holding my breath.
 

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Discussion Starter #30
Buckle up, y'all. It's going to be a bumpy ride. There's way too much static and ugliness in the economic data now for things to be b***** and better for too long. We may or may not be headed for a technical recession in 2020, but I expect a noticeable slowdown. Farmers and steel workers are already being hurt. It will ripple out from there, even without more trade war nonsense. The Chinese know what they are doing. Trump doesn't. We are fekaktered.
 

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Buckle up, y'all. It's going to be a bumpy ride. There's way too much static and ugliness in the economic data now for things to be b***** and better for too long. We may or may not be headed for a technical recession in 2020, but I expect a noticeable slowdown. Farmers and steel workers are already being hurt. It will ripple out from there, even without more trade war nonsense. The Chinese know what they are doing. Trump doesn't. We are fekaktered.


We are at the point you can look at two things 1) housing starts and real estate sales 2) Christmas earnings. If we miss them both over the summer and fall. We will be in a recession in 2020, no doubt.
 

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Discussion Starter #32
I'm looking at a bunch of data points that don't look so hot now. There's the ongoing bond rate inversions. All of the benchmarks have inverted at least once now, and some have been inverted for quite a while. RV sales look like they are way off. We are not seeing the uptick in unemployment claims yet, but that won't hit until right before we head into a recession. Housing starts are not off by much, but they are off. Christmas sales may or may not be so hot this year, what with the gyrations over tariffs. I can't even begin to predict what might happen with all that. I don't think anybody can. The Chinese sure can't, so they are buying soybeans from Brazil and other places now, not Iowa. That's hurt for a while and will continue to hurt.

My strictly outhouse economist prediction is that we are into an economic downturn mid 2020. It may or may not be a technical recession, namely two quarters of negative growth in a row, but it's going to suck.
 

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the joke is in your hand
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say whaaat? you mean trickle down economics has failed again because the rich aint spending? maybe they just need MORE TAX BREAKS! yeah that's the ticket!
the government is also in a huge deficit(highest in history). which means no one will get extra help this time around like Obama was able to do. (extend unemployment benefits) hope the white dick hillbillies all have to sleep in the streets. wait maybe trump will let you sleep in his luxury hotels LOL NO HE FUCKING WONT
 

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the joke is in your hand
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Discussion Starter #35
It's a weird economy. There are so many mixed signals right now it's hard to tell what the economy is going to do. Right now, things seem OK, if a bit shaky. We could still skate by, provided that there's not some shock that tips the economy into a full blown downturn. It's going to go slower for a while, and it looks like manufacturing areas are in recession already, just as they were in 2015 and 2016. Whether or not it spreads depends on a lot of things, including how deeply tariffs bite. A jolt of tariff created inflation would be a big problem. And, no, the Chinese, French, or whoever do not pay the tariffs. American consumers do (or consumers in whatever country imposed the tariffs).

Protectionism didn't do Brazil or Argentina much good, and I don't see why anybody thinks it will do the US much good. That goes for people like Warren and Sanders as well as Trump.

Where we stand right now - there's still decent employment growth. Wage growth has slowed, probably meaning that the new jobs are lower wage jobs. Residential construction is doing OK, but purchasing managers are not optimistic. Interest rates have been inverted for quite a while. The 10-2 spread inverted and has gone positive again. That's my marker for recession in the next six months. If it holds, then I will feel like a real prognosticator. If it doesn't, it's just one more instance of my cloudy plastic crystal ball.
 

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Discussion Starter #36
Well, we just had the shock. The economy was acting weird for a while, and it would not have taken all that much to knock it off its game. I was originally expecting a recession like 1991 or 2001, not a 2007 rerun. It might have been even milder, without a pandemic. Now, I flat don't know what will happen. I don't expect it to come roaring back when the pandemic is back under control, because too many people have been knocked out of work for an indefinite period. Some businesses will never come back. Some will come back at a reduced level.

Demand for things like toilet paper and hand sanitizer won't prop up the entire economy. Demand for acute healthcare services will prop up the economy even less. The bills from acute care will come due, and somebody has to pay those bills. Insurance? People? Uninsured people? The hospital operators? The government? It will depend on whether the GOP gets off its ideological high horse and takes a look at factual evidence or not, at least in part. Until that gets sorted, the economic bailout we just saw pass Congress will help, but it cannot be the last word in solving the upcoming economic issues.

I'm not going to hold my breath too much, but the orange guppy and Moscow Mitch seem to be less obstructive than usual. Maybe something good will come of all of this. I hope they don't just revert when it's getting better around the edges. It won't be back to normal for quite some time.
 

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Well, we just had the shock. The economy was acting weird for a while, and it would not have taken all that much to knock it off its game. I was originally expecting a recession like 1991 or 2001, not a 2007 rerun. It might have been even milder, without a pandemic. Now, I flat don't know what will happen. I don't expect it to come roaring back when the pandemic is back under control, because too many people have been knocked out of work for an indefinite period. Some businesses will never come back. Some will come back at a reduced level.

Demand for things like toilet paper and hand sanitizer won't prop up the entire economy. Demand for acute healthcare services will prop up the economy even less. The bills from acute care will come due, and somebody has to pay those bills. Insurance? People? Uninsured people? The hospital operators? The government? It will depend on whether the GOP gets off its ideological high horse and takes a look at factual evidence or not, at least in part. Until that gets sorted, the economic bailout we just saw pass Congress will help, but it cannot be the last word in solving the upcoming economic issues.

I'm not going to hold my breath too much, but the orange guppy and Moscow Mitch seem to be less obstructive than usual. Maybe something good will come of all of this. I hope they don't just revert when it's getting better around the edges. It won't be back to normal for quite some time.
Christ, don't bet on "something good!" These clowns in the WH are just clueless. This whole economic collapse was just waiting to happen. Wags were saying there would be "a correction" for months. The coronavirus just pushed everything off the cliff. I can't imagine what working people, particularly working people who are/were about the retire, must be thinking as they watch their 401(k) portfolio go down the shitter. I know my kid, who's in his prime earning years, took a bloody beating; but he has time on his side.

And you're right. Markets aren't coming back for a good long while.
 

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Discussion Starter #38
The conventional definition of a recession is two quarters of shrinking output. It's fascinating to see the recession calls that are piling up now. Apparently a recession started in March. It's only the second month, not the second quarter. March may have been so dismal that it wiped all growth for the first quarter off the books. The big hit will come in April, and probably May. It could be June or July before we see a glimmer of life out of the economy. There will be too many people who get knocked down for the economy to pick right back up again.

You can look at this chart and see that the economy was not all that hot in the time leading up to the 2016 election. That didn't help the incumbent party. You can also see that after a decent start, the economy hasn't been exactly blazing under Trump, either. Under normal circumstances, with normal politicians, the dismal economic climate now would mean Trump will be out on his ear in a landslide. He's a bizarre phenomenon who seems to attract the undying fealty of his brown shirted and rabid supporters. They seem to think he's Jesus or or maybe Peron. He certainly doesn't earn any kind of loyalty, nor does he reward loyalty. He will take those votes and given half an opportunity, make sure the serfs who vote for him stay serfs, but at lower wages and with fewer benefits. So, there's no way to know if the economic mess will damage his standing or not. It wiped out Bush's support, and as much as I didn't like him as President, it's clear that Bush was both more competent and a better human than Trump.

247987
 

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Discussion Starter #39
Aaaaand, about a month later. Remember "uncertainty" and how that was bad for the economy when Obamacare was making somebody or something uncertain for reasons nobody could explain? Now we have the cornered rat doing all kinds of crazy stuff. The president hasn't been elected yet, so we have the kindergartener careening around, doing things that are beginning to fray even the military's willingness to go along with his orders. And unemployment claims are absolutely insane numbers now.

And, there's rioting, police crackdown and tear gas being recorded on video, and plenty of evidence that somehow the constipated orange guppy and his courtiers don't seem to think anybody can see. Getting that fat fuck out of office sooner rather than later would help. He was in the process of fucking the economy when COVID came along and gave it a shove over the edge. Then he fucked the response to COVID. Now he's in the process of fucking the response to civil unrest. And, Melania probably wont' let him touch her, as well she shouldn't. So he's busy fucking everything else. And probably Mike Pence, based on the Nancy Reagan eyes Pence always has.

So, we aren't going to see much economic good for another few months, and then it's going to be a very slow climb. When the unemployment benefits run out, it's going to get uglier.
 

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Sshhhh, does anyone want to tell this azzhole he's having a conversation with himself? LMAO!
 
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