Is this campaign about who'll win or about Obama's margin of victory?

[county]

by: Lowell
Thu Jun 12, 2008 at 2:21:29 PM EDT

The main source for these numbers is Real Clear Politics. The number in parentheses after the state's name is Electoral Votes (270 needed). Overall, this is looking good, with Real Clear Politics pegging the race right now as Obama 238-McCain 190 with 110 "Toss Up" electoral votes. If this holds, then Obama needs 32 of the 110 "Toss Ups" -- Ohio (20) plus Virginia (13) would do the trick, as would Michigan (17) plus Colorado (9) plus New Mexico (5) plus one more (New Hampshire? Nevada? Virginia? Missouri? Indiana? North Carolina?). Of course, a lot can happen between now and election day, but all in all I'd much rather be Barack Obama than John McCain right now, especially with the economy deteriorating and oil prices at $130 per barrel.
National: Obama 47%-McCain 41% (Rasmussen)
National: Obama 45%-McCain 39% (NBC/WSJ)

Alabama (9): McCain 57%-Obama 33% (AEA/Capital Survey)
California (55): Obama 52%-McCain 35% (Field)
*Colorado (9): Obama 48%-McCain 42% (Rasmussen)
*Florida (27): McCain 45%-Obama 41% (Quinnipiac)
Georgia (15): McCain 51%-Obama 41% (Rasmussen)
Indiana (11): Obama 48%-McCain 47% (Downs Center)
*Iowa (7): Obama 45%-McCain 38% (Rasmussen)
Louisiana (9): McCain 50%-Obama 41% (Rasmussen)
Maine (4): Obama 51%-McCain 38% (Rasmussen)
Massachusetts (12): Obama 53%-McCain 30% (Suffolk)
Michigan (17): Obama 45%-McCain 42% (Rasmussen)
Minnesota (10): Obama 47%-McCain 42% (SurveyUSA)
Mississippi (6): McCain 50%-Obama 44% (Rasmussen)
*Missouri (11): Obama 43%-McCain 42% (Rasmussen)
Montana (3): McCain 47%-Obama 39% (Mason-Dixon)
Nebraska (5): McCain 49%-Obama 40% (SurveyUSA)
*Nevada (5): McCain 46%-Obama 40% (Rasmussen)
*New Hampshire (4): Obama 48%-McCain 43% (Rasmussen)
New Jersey (15): Obama 45%-McCain 39% (Quinnipiac)
New York (31): Obama 50%-McCain 36% (Quinnipiac)
North Carolina (15): McCain 45%-Obama 43% (Rasmussen)
*Ohio (20): Obama 48%-McCain 39% (SurveyUSA)
Oregon (7): Obama 49%-McCain 39% (SurveyUSA)
Pennsylvania (21): Obama 45%-McCain 43% (Rasmussen)
South Carolina (8): McCain 48%-Obama 39% (Rasmussen)
Texas (34): McCain 52%-Obama 39% (Rasmussen)
Utah (5): McCain 54%-Obama 31% (Jones & Assoc.)
*Virginia (13): Obama 49%-McCain 42% (SurveyUSA)
Washington (11): Obama 53%-McCain 35% (Rasmussen)
West Virginia (5): McCain 45%-Obama 37% (Rasmussen)
Wisconsin (10): Obama 50%-McCain 37% (Univ. Wisconsin)

*Key swing states

Lowell :: Latest Obama vs. McCain Polls

[SXSMITH]

Good baseline post to see where it goes from here. I'm not expecting much change. I think it will be closer than his prediction in Colorado. Especially if we can get those Diebold machines rigged in time.

[SlowGoose]

Originally Posted by SXSMITH

Especially if we can get those Diebold machines rigged in time.

[BigArn]

Originally Posted by SXSMITH

Good baseline post to see where it goes from here. I'm not expecting much change. I think it will be closer than his prediction in Colorado. Especially if we can get those Diebold machines rigged in time.

That should not be to hard to do

[SXSMITH]

Originally Posted by BigArn

That should not be to hard to do

Correct. The shipment from Ohio should be here any day now.

And we're getting whiteout for these things to fix the names up real good.