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Politics & Religion Well Since every damn forum has one. Might as well leave it out there. This place is loosely moderated and should not be entered if you're weak of heart.

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View Poll Results: When will he admit he's not pulling out any time soon?
Before the convention 1 2.94%
After the convention, before the election 3 8.82%
After he's elected (if he wins...) 16 47.06%
He won't- his word is his bond, we're outta there. 14 41.18%
Voters: 34. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 06-23-2008, 07:20 PM   1 links from elsewhere to this Post. Click to view. #1 (permalink)
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Default When will Obama back off on troop withdrawal promise?

Whadda ya think?
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Old 06-23-2008, 07:50 PM   #2 (permalink)
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He already said it was going to take time. He has a goal, though, and that's a lot better than counting on being there 100 years.
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Old 06-23-2008, 08:18 PM   #3 (permalink)
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I'm inclined to think he'll do his best to do what he says on this one. A (thin) majority of Americans want it, but a great majority of Americans who might vote for him (or do so again) want it. If he does backtrack, it certainly won't be until after the election (assuming he wins this time), since this is the biggest issue to whack McCain with and bring out his supporters in force. But if he then wants to get re-elected (again, assuming he wins this time), he better follow through on it.

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Old 06-23-2008, 08:24 PM   #4 (permalink)
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I think he will say whatever his handlers think will get him the most votes, and he will worry about the reality of the situation later
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Old 06-23-2008, 09:00 PM   #5 (permalink)
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What bumblebee said. duh. Like there is any debate on this.
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Old 06-23-2008, 09:13 PM   #6 (permalink)
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I'm inclined to think he'll do his best to do what he says on this one. A (thin) majority of Americans want it, but a great majority of Americans who might vote for him (or do so again) want it. If he does backtrack, it certainly won't be until after the election (assuming he wins this time), since this is the biggest issue to whack McCain with and bring out his supporters in force. But if he then wants to get re-elected (again, assuming he wins this time), he better follow through on it.

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Old 06-24-2008, 01:33 AM   #7 (permalink)
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depends how many votes barr could pull. he may need to pander to the neocons for a few votes.
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Old 06-24-2008, 10:45 AM   #8 (permalink)
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depends how many votes barr could pull. he may need to pander to the neocons for a few votes.
Obama, pander to the neocons? That's the one constituency I would be very surprised to see Obama pander to. Anybody else, sure, but not them. McCain, on the other hand, has to make sure he gets them, because they are going to be his source of cash and the source of cash for 527s supporting him.
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Old 06-24-2008, 11:13 AM   #9 (permalink)
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I daresay that Obama will not get any votes from "neocons"
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Old 06-24-2008, 11:51 AM   #10 (permalink)
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I'm inclined to think he'll do his best to do what he says on this one. A (thin) majority of Americans want it...
It's not a thin majority. If you ask the question how long should we stay in Iraq and offer different periods of time to withdraw, 70% want our troops out within five years. That's the same percentage that wants either an immediate withdrawal or a timetable to get the job done.

The only poll that got close to what you're saying is a recent WSJ/NBC poll that only gave two options: Withdraw most troops by the beginning of 2009 (seven months from now) or stay until the country is stable. Even then, an immediate withdrawal won 49-45.



To the question in the original post - he won't back off because he can't. This isn't politics, the deployment schedule in Iraq has broken the National Guard and Reserves as a capable force and it is breaking the Army. The next president, whoever it is, will have to quickly get us down to under 20,000 support staff and advisers in Iraq or we will destroy our country's ground forces. We never had the manpower to maintain a 130,000+ deployment in Iraq for five years, the damage Bush has done by pretending we did will take a decade to repair.
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Old 06-24-2008, 11:55 AM   #11 (permalink)
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I think he will say whatever his handlers think will get him the most votes, and he will worry about the reality of the situation later
That about sums up every political race there is. And there's still people that think these candidates are heroes that will go in and fix everything.

I saw a headline in The Onion earlier in the primaries when John Edwards was around, and it was something like "John Edwards Vows to End All Bad Things by 2011" funny as hell, but that's what they're promising.
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Old 06-24-2008, 02:35 PM   #12 (permalink)
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He is still a politician, I suspect that particular campaign promise will evaporate within a month of the inauguration. My money says we have more troops in Iraq at the end of Obama's term than at the start.

There is a REASON that there is a 5 year time-table. That way he doesn't have to show any results at all until his second term, so he can't get nailed on the re-election. Meaning that he really doesn't have to pull anyone out to see two terms. This is NOT a coincidence.

Hope I'm wrong, but I doubt it.
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Old 06-24-2008, 03:34 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Interestingly, this is one of the more volatile polls I've seen here.
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Old 06-24-2008, 04:05 PM   #14 (permalink)
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Originally Posted by baldheadeddork View Post
It's not a thin majority. If you ask the question how long should we stay in Iraq and offer different periods of time to withdraw, 70% want our troops out within five years. That's the same percentage that wants either an immediate withdrawal or a timetable to get the job done.

The only poll that got close to what you're saying is a recent WSJ/NBC poll that only gave two options: Withdraw most troops by the beginning of 2009 (seven months from now) or stay until the country is stable. Even then, an immediate withdrawal won 49-45.

To the question in the original post - he won't back off because he can't. This isn't politics, the deployment schedule in Iraq has broken the National Guard and Reserves as a capable force and it is breaking the Army. The next president, whoever it is, will have to quickly get us down to under 20,000 support staff and advisers in Iraq or we will destroy our country's ground forces. We never had the manpower to maintain a 130,000+ deployment in Iraq for five years, the damage Bush has done by pretending we did will take a decade to repair.
I'm sure it depends on who you ask and how. One indication for me, though, is that if there is something that the big political parties are good at, it's seizing on issues that they think will draw out voters. McCain has been strongly promoting his support for the war, while Obama has been more subdued on the subject (and Clinton waffled about). That indicates to me that none of them think that opposing the war is a clearly winning issue, which would make me think that the country may be more evenly divided than you think. Even here in definitely-left-leaning-CA, I still see a fair bit of support for the war; I bet there are a lot of states where opposition is a minority.

If you (and that poll) are right, though, (a) that's good news, and (b) it only strengthens my position in this thread that Obama will try to keep his word on this because failing to do so will cost him future votes.

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Old 06-24-2008, 04:14 PM   #15 (permalink)
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I'm sure it depends on who you ask and how. One indication for me, though, is that if there is something that the big political parties are good at, it's seizing on issues that they think will draw out voters. McCain has been strongly promoting his support for the war, while Obama has been more subdued on the subject (and Clinton waffled about). That indicates to me that none of them think that opposing the war is a clearly winning issue, which would make me think that the country may be more evenly divided than you think. Even here in definitely-left-leaning