Decrats disappointed!!!

[Dakota Kid]

So I was reading some on line articles this am, and it seems the Dems expected a big spike in the Messiah (oops, I mean Obama) poll numbers. Funny thing is, that "spike" is much, much smaller than they had hoped for.

Huh. I guess there are a lot of pissed off Hillary voters (read: women) that are not gonna capitulate and vote for the annointed one.

Landslide, huh guys?

[Dakota Kid]

And independents favor Senator McCain.

[Gaolee]

Hillary was the annointed one and the front runner right up until the votes started getting counted. Polls change all the time.

[gfarce]

As has been observed by the pundit class, this election map could very well turn on as many as 26 "swing states."

Which could mean that a relatively close election in popular votes could become something of a "landslide" on the electoral map, one way or another.

McCain's always been the media darling -- the accessible war hero. But the more people find out about him, the more trouble he's in. The handicap Obama's been operating with has been well-known since before his campaign began.

How heavy that baggage turns out to be for each will determine the outcome.

[Dakota Kid]

Originally Posted by gfarce

As has been observed by the pundit class, this election map could very well turn on as many as 26 "swing states."

Which could mean that a relatively close election in popular votes could become something of a "landslide" on the electoral map, one way or another.

McCain's always been the media darling -- the accessible war hero. But the more people find out about him, the more trouble he's in. The handicap Obama's been operating with has been well-known since before his campaign began.

How heavy that baggage turns out to be for each will determine the outcome.

Good post. You can also make the argument that the more people find out about Obama, the more trouble he is in, hence him limping to the finish line in the primaries.

[gfarce]

Originally Posted by Dakota Kid

Good post. You can also make the argument that the more people find out about Obama, the more trouble he is in, hence him limping to the finish line in the primaries.

On "liberal" policy, maybe. But I think people pretty well know he's black, and that's always been the biggest challenge. Democrats have had time to think about that, and all but less than 20% have gotten past it. Even the women who it was thought might take quite a while to come around.

Independents and the many disaffected Republicans this year are just now facing that decision for the first time. Which, of course, is why Fox and the internet are teeming with racially-motivated rumors about him and his wife. The only way to have a chance against him is to poison the well RIGHT NOW by making him a strange and SCARY black man.

[Dakota Kid]

Originally Posted by gfarce

On "liberal" policy, maybe. But I think people pretty well know he's black, and that's always been the biggest challenge. Democrats have had time to think about that, and all but less than 20% have gotten past it. Even the women who it was thought might take quite a while to come around.

Independents and the many disaffected Republicans this year are just now facing that decision for the first time. Which, of course, is why Fox and the internet are teeming with racially-motivated rumors about him and his wife. The only way to have a chance against him is to poison the well RIGHT NOW by making him a strange and SCARY black man.

Well, I dearly hope you are wrong, and that if he loses this election, it is NOT because the color of his skin. That would just make me sick.

I think he is a terrifically talented man, and so well spoken that I love to listen to him. His policies do scare me though, I think he will spend us into the REAL poor house.

I just want an election decided on issues. Naive, huh?

[gfarce]

Reminds me of Mike Huckabee's comment to his kids, I think, that "if you can't stand the sight of your own blood, politics isn't for you."

The pros are in this now, and they're gonna play rough, because runner-up doesn't get you a spot in the gov't. And just think of what's at stake, for the oil industry, for the auto industry, for the insurance industry, for all the military suppliers, and on and on. This is deadly serious now.

Sorta like trying to get the mafia out of the waste hauling business. You could get hurt.

I'm not saying anybody's out to kill him literally. But they're out to win, whatever it takes.

So, while I hope you're right, I fear you're wrong.

[Dakota Kid]

Yeah, it is a shitty business. Makes me wonder why John McCain at his age wants to stay in that mess, shit he and his wife should just retire and live out their days.

[shah269]

Obama hasn't even picked a running mate and you are allready declaring him dead?
Weren't you the guys who just 9 months ago were yacking about how you hated McCain?
And 8 years ago about his fake black baby?
Man....I've said it before and I'll say it again, gopers are a dictators wet dream.
You guys will believe what ever the boob tube feeds you hu?

As for me? Let me point out that McCain has been in the biz for how long? And Obama for how long? And the best McCain can do with all of his years of experience is to stay even? What's he going to do to pull ahead? Ask our boy king to come out and support him?

[Gaolee]

When McCain got smeared about fathering a black baby, Public Enemy's Fear of a Black Planet kept going through my head. Now, Obama is immune to the smear, since he is proudly the father of two black babies. The dumbass wing is going to have to come up with another smear of some kind.

It is only a matter of time before we figure out that Americans are all multi-ethnic and multi-racial if we have had forefathers here long enough.

[Dakota Kid]

Originally Posted by shah269

Obama hasn't even picked a running mate and you are allready declaring him dead?
Weren't you the guys who just 9 months ago were yacking about how you hated McCain?
And 8 years ago about his fake black baby?
Man....I've said it before and I'll say it again, gopers are a dictators wet dream.
You guys will believe what ever the boob tube feeds you hu?

As for me? Let me point out that McCain has been in the biz for how long? And Obama for how long? And the best McCain can do with all of his years of experience is to stay even? What's he going to do to pull ahead? Ask our boy king to come out and support him?

Declaring him dead? Dude, I just said he did not get as big a spike as Dems had hoped....not sure were you read that I thought he was dead.

[Baldrick]

I'm wondering who these "Decrats" are, that you write of...

[SXSMITH]

Originally Posted by gfarce

As has been observed by the pundit class, this election map could very well turn on as many as 26 "swing states."

Which could mean that a relatively close election in popular votes could become something of a "landslide" on the electoral map, one way or another.

McCain's always been the media darling -- the accessible war hero. But the more people find out about him, the more trouble he's in. The handicap Obama's been operating with has been well-known since before his campaign began.

How heavy that baggage turns out to be for each will determine the outcome.

Many of my conservative friends (which you guys would call Nazi's), have come to this conclusion after careful analysis.

Obama winning 334 to 204 in electoral votes.

Based on Obama winning 28 states plus DC
McCain winning 22 states

[baldheadeddork]

Deek - what poll did you see showing McCain winning independents? Better, which one shows women staying with McCain? Every one I've seen since HRC dropped out has Obama winning women by almost 20 points.

Obama has been running 4-6 points ahead of McCain for the last week in the national tracking polls. That's a 6-8 point swing from before the end of the Democratic primaries, and that's a pretty good bump. I think I probably pay a little more attention to Dem politics than you, so believe me when I say no one was predicting more than an 8 point bump. The median prediction was six.

Obama is also holding it, which is pretty good news. The Clinton story has faded, the race now is just about Obama and McCain, and he's continuing to hold a solid lead. I'd rather start out the general election campaign this way than being six points behind.

One of my favorite general election sites is Electoral-Vote.com. Their trick is to track state-by-state polls and keep track of which way the general election race is heading. The really cool part is that you can scroll through their daily results (with the previous post link) to see which states have moved and in which direction. Any polling this far out is pointless, but if you are going to pay attention to any of this crap - this is what you should be following because it shows how the battle is shaping up in the swing states.

Here's today's map:


If the election were held today Obama would beat McCain 317-221, but like I said that's pointless right now. What does matter is what each candidate needs to do to improve his chances in the next five months. McCain has to keep all of the red and pink states, and take four of the six states where Obama has a small (<5 point) lead. McCain has to take back Ohio, Michigan, Missouri and either Virginia, Nevada or Connecticut to retake the lead in the race.

McCain also has to stop the bleeding of his lead in a lot of other states. Here's how the map looked for McCain just a month ago:



At that time Obama trailed McCain 237-290. That means there has been a swing of 149 electoral votes in the last month. (You can call it a bump, if you want.) What caused that? McCain hasn't done anything that stupid and Obama hasn't been that brilliant. The only thing that's changed is that the Dems have decided on a nominee. That's all it took for Obama to go from a three-state deficit to a five-state lead in the electoral college polling.

The McCain camp knows this is happening. They're not hitting the panic button yet, but they know where it is. If McCain falls farther behind you'll see them start to panic in earnest. If North Carolina tips blue (very likely) or Michigan and Ohio start to solidify for Obama (also very likely) and they don't retake Ohio and Missouri, the knives will start to come out against McCain.

The next month is probably the most important in McCain's entire campaign. He's not raising money and he's losing ground fast in the electoral college polls. If he doesn't turn this around before everyone starts to gear up for the conventions a lot of Republicans are going to ask if they want him to be their candidate?