So as not to clutter the Pre-Season testing thread with too much smack, I am starting this thread. I'll fire the first shot
I do not believe that Stoner will win the championship this year. Barring Ducati getting its act together soon, I think one of the Yamahas will win. I am leaning toward JLo, but could give a wild shot to Spies.
I'd prefer we keep all predictions within the off season thread.
Oh and i hate these kinds of threads. They inadvertedly turn into a Rossi vs Stoner thread. With both sides of the camp gripping at straws and bashing each other and the reapective riders. Pointless.
But since we're talking trash here, I'll go ahead and give my usual Rossi prediction and casino cash offer. Rossi won't win a single race this season, either. I'll bet all my casino cash on it, or as much as anyone wants to bet.
Last year I declined this one, as the technology was still too undeveloped. But this year, since they wimped out and reverted to known tech, I think they will be more successful in the short term.
So for the 2012 season, I will take your bet for $50K. Rossi will win at least one race.
To make a prediction I'd need to see the first 3-4 races and see how Ducati progress. In pre test 1 interviews, Filippo Preziosi and Rossi both said that Ducati will not be competitive from the start of the season but hope to return to the top as the season rolls on. Seeing how test 2 was basically a waste in the first 2 days and was pretty negative in day 3 I think it's too early to make an educated guess for Ducati. I hope that they sort out the bike and I believe they will, and Rossi will win at least one race - even if it's at the end of the season.
As for the others - I think the Yamis are looking good and as long as JLo has a bike that allows him to keep up with the Honda and actually race with Stoner, there's no way Stoner will be crowned champion this season. As I said in the pre-season test thread, I've seen Stoner go fast as hell but if we don't count Laguna Seca '08, I'm yet to see him actually race someone and have a real battle. If there's someone who can match Stoner's pace there's no way Stoner will come out on top unless the guy chasing him is Pedrosa. What I said about Stoner applies to Pedro too - he's basically a tad slower version of Stoner ... a really fast rider that won't win a battle against someone who puts up a real fight.
If I were to make another wild guess I'd say Spies will end up in top 4 this season - maybe top 3. I honestly doubt he's got a chance for the championship but I'd be pleasantly surprised if he proves me wrong.
Based on the current test times and the gap between the Hondas and the Yamahas I think JLo will be '12 champion.
Stoner is plenty consistant too, and has definitely improved his racecraft. If you look at the lap analysis from Laguna last year for example, Stoner is even more consistant and metronomic than Jorge with regards to lap times. I wouldn't bet money against Stoner, but I think that JLo will be in with a real shot this year. If Pedrosa can stay healthy and keep it together who knows? Maybe we're in for a three way title battle. I expect Spies to be just behind the aforementioned three, consistently scoring in the points and with hopefully a few wins/podiums as well. I don't expect him to challenge for the title though.
Spies realistically isn't a title competitor in Moto GP. But hey, the dominoes can fall just right enough for Hayden to win a championship. He has a small chance to make top 3 this year, with Dovi being off the Honda and Simoncelli out.
I have to disagree. Spies has shown he has the pace to win or podium at nearly every round. His biggest problem has been his launches at the start, getting swallowed up in the pack and having to work his way back up to his original starting position. He started to improve on that late in the season.
Having never watched a MotoGP race without already knowing the results, I'm pretty excited for this season. I recorded all the motoGP reruns that air and watched them over the last few months. It should be fun to watch a race with actual anticipation.
Good question. If he finishes second or better, I think Repsol will just pull out the money to field 3 bikes (assuming Marquez ever recovers his vision). If not, then I think that he will probably go to the factory Yamaha seat that will be vacated by Spies if he doesn't score multiple race wins this year. I like Spies alot, and I hope that he can keep his factory ride though.
Should be interesting at Qatar. I bet dovi is going to be fighting hard to impress the higher ups at yamaha. Guarenteed he wants to move into spies shoes.
Marquez apparently had surgery on his eye and his recovering well (some tiny muscle around his eye was paralyzed, causing him double-vision), so it doesn't seem like it'll be an issue.
Well seeming its the trash talking thread. After repeated plea's from Dorna and Repsol Honda Stoner lets Pedrosa win a race lets Lorenzo win two and Spies win one to keep the American market happy. He then gets tired of the charade and goes on to decimate every race buy at least ten seconds after which Dorna introduce a new rule for the next season that if your name's casey stoner you are intelligible to race in the interests of competition.
The Rossi fan boi's will continue to believe he will be back despite repeatedly finishing behind Hayden. A new Italian dream team is suggested of Rossi on a CRT Aprilia, Aprilia tell him to go jump because he is too slow!
I agree Stoner is the one to beat, but recall the health problems of the past and think back to Rossi breaking his leg. Anything can and will happen that can turn the season on its head. His best bet is to get far ahead early in the season, then try and stay healthy to wrap it up on top. Least with an early lead if something happens he can perhaps save his season...
I think Pedrosa, Lorenzo and Dovisioso all have good chances at podium finishes, and I would not rule out one or two for Spies. I think Rossi could see one or more also, but he will have his work cut out for him on the Duc.
Not really looking forward to another year of Honda domination, but I shouldn't complain - I loved watching Rossi and Lorenzo duke it out on the Yamis of years past, and I'm not even a fan of the manufacturer. In the 800cc days, it seemed the Yamaha's were king.
Interesting result at Sepang from Dovi on the Tech3 Yamaha...
I agree with JK, last year Spies showed promise, but was hindered by his starts. He was putting up a good fight with Simo and everyone considered Simo to be the next big thing (and how I wish it were true). I think Spies, or at least I do hope Spies surprises a few of you guys. He's fast and he won't be hurting as much this year because of his size. He was also fastest on the day Honda didn't show up wasn't he?
I think Spies has a shot at a race win if it's wet, or if he ends up with a perfect storm like he had in Assen, where the Hondas of Stoner and Dovi were just a little bit off the pace, Lorenzo got taken out by Simoncelli who also crashed, and Pedrosa was out with injury. Otherwise Lorenzo was faster than him once he got clear of traffic fighting his way from last place back up to 6th by at least a half second a lap.
Otherwise I don't think he has much of a chance, Lorenzo is still Yamaha's #1 rider and that bike will be tailored for him, not Spies. Also Spies just doesn't have enough consistency throughout the race. If he can stick to the tail end of the lead pack through the start of the race then make some passes later on he can do well, but he is just shooting himself in the foot with his early race performance.
Don't forget about the Indy GP - Spies fell back, came through from what... 6th or 8th? Caught up and passed Jlo. The man rode with a vengeance - he's got the talent.
(I can't find a specific highlight, but this one has it).
The man needs to take some drag racing lessons damnit, I'm tired of watching him fall back and play ketchup. I wanna see what he can do too if he can stick with the lead pack.
Again, without any real proof of Mladins motives, we're just speculating. But if someone can produce a credible article, I'll be the first to read it. :dblthumb
There was a interview couple of years ago with Mladin published in Two Wheels (Australian version) we he stated outright that he wasn't prepared to pay his way in WSBK which is what he expected to have to do if he made the jump.
Well, despite the fact that Mladin lost the title to Spies, he won more races. So more often than not, he was beating a GP class rider on equal machinery. I mean the amount of time and effort he put in to making himself competitive with Spies; the excessive training, weight loss, and all the rest of it was nothing short of inspiring. The guy wasn't warm and fuzzy maybe but I think its hard to deny that he was clearly at least WSBK caliber.
Edit: Trying to find it right now but I believe there is indeed one article in which Mladin cites the fact that he would have had to put some money in to a WSBK ride and that he just wasn't willing to do it when he was making 7 million a year.
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